With World War II raging, and America and its Allies widely viewed as winning it, but not yet having won it, FDR won 432 Electoral Votes to Dewey's 99. The popular vote was 25.6 million for FDR, 22.0 million for Dewey. That looks close, but it worked out to 53.4 percent for FDR, and 45.9 for Dewey.
Dewey won 12 States: Maine, Vermont (the only 2 States that FDR never won), Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and Wyoming. FDR won the other 36 States, including New York, where both men lived; and Michigan, where Dewey was born and raised.
How close was it? Take out "the Solid South," still not willing to vote for a Republican because it was "The Party of Lincoln," even if he was as conservative as they were, and the Electoral Vote would have been 276-99 for FDR. Not enough to cost him the election. Nor the popular vote: FDR still would have won, 21.1 million to 19.9 million.
But if Dewey had won every State in which he got at least 47 percent of the vote, including New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois, which were then the 3 States with the largest population, he would have won the Electoral Vote, 275-256. (48 percent wouldn't have done it, because he would still have lost New York, and the election, 303-238.)
The consensus, in both candidates' camps, was that the key to FDR winning was to have him be seen as winning The War, but not having already won it, meaning he was needed to "finish the job." As in 1940, the consensus was that, if he were running solely on domestic policy, he would have lost, because a lot of people were tired of the New Deal and its regulations, but trusted the experienced old hand to win The War.
The last time America had a Presidential election in the middle of a war was in 1864, when Abraham Lincoln was by no means a shoo-in for re-election, but military success gave him the win. The Democrats brought back Lincoln's slogan: "Don't change horses in mid-stream." But, with Senator Harry Truman of Missouri replacing Henry Wallace as the nominee for Vice President, the Republicans joked that the Democrats had changed the back half of the horse. The Republicans had nominated Governor John Bricker of Ohio, their 2nd-place finisher in delegates, for Vice President, and this gave them a rhyming slogan: "Win the war quicker with Dewey and Bricker."
FDR was not well, struggling with heart disease and high blood pressure, brought on by the pressure of fighting, essentially, 2 major wars at once: Against Nazi Germany in Europe, and against the Japanese Empire in the Pacific. And he was also trying to set up the postwar country, with his G.I. Bill of Rights and other postwar economic measures; and the postwar world, with the United Nations.
His smoking and drinking didn't help. He was 62 years old, and looked at least 72. The Republicans began a "whispering campaign," saying that the Democratic titan was too old and tired to handle the Presidency, and possibly dying.
To counter this, FDR held a parade down Broadway in Lower Manhattan. In the rain. Not good for his health. I wonder if anyone warned him about William Henry Harrison, who was inaugurated as President on March 4, 1841, and then proceeded, without a hat, overcoat or gloves, in freezing rain, to give the longest Inaugural Address ever, 1 hour and 45 minutes. He died 1 month later.
To counter this, FDR held a parade down Broadway in Lower Manhattan. In the rain. Not good for his health. I wonder if anyone warned him about William Henry Harrison, who was inaugurated as President on March 4, 1841, and then proceeded, without a hat, overcoat or gloves, in freezing rain, to give the longest Inaugural Address ever, 1 hour and 45 minutes. He died 1 month later.
FDR's parade was attended by millions, cheering and chanting, "We want Roosevelt!" Prior to the parade, he held a rally at Ebbets Field in Brooklyn. "I've got a confession to make," he told the crowd. "I come from the State of New York, and I've practiced law in New York City. But I have never been in Ebbets Field before." He was not booed.
He did say, "I've rooted for the Dodgers" -- even though he had, on numerous occasions, been to Yankee Stadium to cheer on the Yankees, to the Polo Grounds to cheer on the Giants, and saw them both at the Polo Grounds in Game 2 of the 1936 World Series. "And I hope to come back someday and watch 'em play." That got a huge roar.
FDR would be unable to go back. He had not been to a major league game since before Pearl Harbor, thinking it inappropriate for the President to do so. (There was Presidential precedent: Woodrow Wilson loved baseball, and threw out the first ball at every Opening Day of his first term, but not in 1917 and '18 due to World War I, not in '19 due to his trip to the postwar peace conference, and not in '20 due to his health.) FDR died at the dawn of the next season, of a stroke brought on by working himself to death to save civilization from fascism.
He did say, "I've rooted for the Dodgers" -- even though he had, on numerous occasions, been to Yankee Stadium to cheer on the Yankees, to the Polo Grounds to cheer on the Giants, and saw them both at the Polo Grounds in Game 2 of the 1936 World Series. "And I hope to come back someday and watch 'em play." That got a huge roar.
FDR would be unable to go back. He had not been to a major league game since before Pearl Harbor, thinking it inappropriate for the President to do so. (There was Presidential precedent: Woodrow Wilson loved baseball, and threw out the first ball at every Opening Day of his first term, but not in 1917 and '18 due to World War I, not in '19 due to his trip to the postwar peace conference, and not in '20 due to his health.) FDR died at the dawn of the next season, of a stroke brought on by working himself to death to save civilization from fascism.
In 2016, there was no "whispering campaign": The Republicans came right out and said that the year's Democratic nominee, also (officially) from the State of New York, Hillary Clinton, was "dying" and "doesn't have the stamina to be President." She did 3 90-minute debates, and kicked Donald Trump's ass in each of them.
In 2020, when it became clear that Trump was becoming more and more unhealthy and unhinged, they said it was Joe Biden who had "dementia." He did 2 debates that, because of Trump's interruptions, lasted more than 90 minutes, and mopped the floor with him both times.
As of November 7, 2022, both Hillary Clinton, age 78, and Joe Biden, a few days away from turning 80, are still alive, and appear to be in good health. So, you tell me.
UPDATE: After a disastrous debate with Trump, Biden, 81, accepted the appeals of major Democratic officials, and dropped out of the race, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who turned 60 late in the campaign. Trump, 78, now looked like a very old man indeed. He did emerge as the official winner of the election, but acted ever more like a grumpy old man as his 2nd term went on.
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November 7, 1944 was a Tuesday. Midweek, so no football. The baseball season was over. The NHL season had started, but had no games scheduled for this day. And the NBA hadn't yet been founded. So there were no scores on this historic day.
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