Showing posts with label dow jones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dow jones. Show all posts

Saturday, October 29, 2022

October 29, 1929: Crash and Depression

October 29, 1929: Black Tuesday. The stock market completes the crash that began the preceding Thursday. The Roaring Twenties are over. The Dirty Thirties, and the Great Depression, have begun.

The incumbent Republican President, Herbert Hoover, gets blamed for it, when it was his Republican predecessors, Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, who set the table for it. Hoover shouldn't be blamed for the Depression. And he shouldn't be blamed for doing nothing: He tried a few things.
What he should be blamed for is giving up. Some of the things he tried worked a little, but not enough, and he abandoned his efforts. And in 1932, he lost in a landslide, to the Democratic Governor of New York, Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Emptied pockets, to show that you had no money, became known as Hoover flags. Newspapers used as cover by homeless people became known as Hoover blankets. Shanty towns became Hoovervilles. And hitching a horse up to your car, because you couldn't afford gasoline but you didn't dare sell your car, earned the vehicles the nickname Hoover wagons. In Canada, where Richard Bennett rode the Depression to become Prime Minister in 1930, but was turned out in 1935 because he governed more like Hoover than Roosevelt, they were known as Bennett buggies.
Did you think I was making it up?

The happy, peppy songs of the Roaring Twenties -- including a song recorded just before, but released just after, the crash, which was saved by FDR making it his campaign theme song, "Happy Days Are Here Again" -- were gone. Songs of the Depression either spoke of hardship, like "Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?" (evoking both now-fallen industry and World War I), "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" (not the Green Day song of 2005), "Gloomy Sunday," and "Remember My Forgotten Man"; or tried to defy it, like "We're In the Money" and "Life Is Just a Bowl of Cherries."

Movies also reflected this. Monster movies abounded, with Dracula and Frankenstein both released in 1931, and King Kong and The Invisible Man in 1933, each inspiring many imitators. Gangster movies peaked then, with James Cagney's The Public Enemy, Edward G. Robinson's Little Caesar, and the original version of Scarface, starring Paul Muni, all made in 1931, the latter not released until 1932.

At the height of the stock boom in early September 1929, America's unemployment rate was 3.2 percent. By the end of 1930, it was 8.7. 1931, 15.9. At the 1932 election, 23.6. At the depth, on March 4, 1933, when FDR was inaugurated and the banking crisis was critical, the rate was 24.9 percent. Fully 1 out of 4 Americans who wanted to work couldn't get work. Some people have suggested the rate was considerably higher than that, as much as 31 percent, or nearly 1 in 3.

FDR ended up building on some of what worked under Hoover, and in New York State under his leadership there, and put it in overdrive. Banking reforms stopped the financial bleeding, securities reforms prevented much of the abuses that had been done (stopped it, that is, until deregulation in the 1980s), and his public works and other construction programs created millions of jobs.

His New Deal had worked very well, but the problems remained vast. When he was sworn in for a 2nd term on January 20, 1937, having gotten the unemployment rate down to 14 percent (either cut by a third or a half, depending on whose figures you believe), FDR said the work was far from done: "I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished." And it may have been more like two-fifths, or 40 percent, because that included what we would now call "the working poor."

That year, FDR did what conservatives have always suggested for economic hardship: Cut spending. It backfired, and unemployment went from a Depression-low of 14.3 percent to 19.0 percent by the time of the 1938 elections, resulting in the Republicans' best performance between 1928 and 1946, although not enough to gain control of either house.

But 1937 was the year Social Security began handing out checks, and 1938 was the year the 1st federal minimum wage took effect. By 1941, unemployment was back under 10 percent. It still didn't get back to tolerable levels until the U.S. entered World War II, and a lot of unemployed men went into the armed forces, and a lot of employed men did as well, their stateside jobs becoming available to unemployed men -- and women.

From the dawn of the American Civil War in 1860 to 1928, the Republican Party had gone 14-4 in Presidential elections. (Okay, they may have stolen those of 1876, 1880 and 1888.) And in the 4 that the Democratic Party won -- 1884, 1892, 1912 and 1916 -- they still didn't get a majority of the popular vote in any of them, not even with the 1912 split in the Republicans that led to an Electoral Vote landslide for Woodrow Wilson. The GOP also held both houses of Congress for most of a 70-year stretch from 1860 to 1930.

But when the Great Depression began, and turned out to be worse than previous depressions -- 1837-43, 1857-59, 1873-78, 1893-98, 1920-22 -- people took their anger out on the Republicans. Herbert Hoover went from winning 21.4 million votes in 1928 to 15.7 million in 1932. He went from a popular vote percentage of 58.2 percent in 1928 to 39.6 in 1932. He went from winning 40 States to 6, and only in Maine and Vermont did he get more than 51 percent. In the Electoral Vote, he went from 444 to 59. This was not so much an embrace of FDR and his as-yet vague New Deal as it was a firing of Hoover and the Republicans.

The Democrats won 7 of the next 9 elections. The 2 the Republicans won, 1952 and 1956, were by Dwight D. Eisenhower, and "Ike" basically won them because he was the commanding General of World War II. America was embracing him, not Republican principles. Even when Richard Nixon won in 1968, it was a 3-way race, in which he got 48 percent of the vote. Aside from Ike, no Republican got at least 50 percent between Hoover in 1928 and Nixon himself in 1972. 

Furthermore, in Congressional elections, the Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 1930, and held it only in 1947-48 and 1953-54, until 1994. They lost the Senate in 1932, and held it only in 1947-48, 1953-54, and 1981-86, until 1994.

Among the effects the Depression had on sports: Connie Mack lost everything he had aside from his stock in the Philadelphia Athletics, forcing him, by the end of the 1932 season, to break up his dynasty. The American Basketball League lost several teams, thus delaying pro basketball's rise to major league status until after World War II. And several NFL teams went under, putting the League's future in jeopardy.

In addition, when cartoonist Willard Mullin went to Ebbets Field , and heard a fan call his beloved Brooklyn Dodgers "you bums," he drew a bum, with a five o'clock shadow, just one tooth, and patches all over his clothes, and everyone in New York could identify with it, because they had all been seriously affected by poverty, or knew someone who had been.
The Dodgers were "Dem Bums" from then on, even including Mullin's drawing on the covers of their yearbooks, until Walter O'Malley moved them to Los Angeles after the 1957 season. As late as 1975, the Houston Astros had cartoon representations of the other National League teams on the cover of their yearbook, and the Dodgers, in their 18th season in Los Angeles, were still represented by a bum.

But the Great Depression of which the Crash of 1929 was the chief cause (but not the only cause, as is commonly believed) also led Americans to search for heroes wherever they could find them. As they so often do, they turned to sports. Babe Ruth, still a star up to his 1935 retirement, became even more popular. So did Lou Gehrig. Dizzy Dean, Hank Greenberg, Joe DiMaggio and Bob Feller would debut within the next 7 years, and would become legends. So would football stars Bronko Nagurski, Don Hutson and Slingin' Sammy Baugh, and the Heisman Trophy would be established.

The New York Rangers' forward line of Frank Boucher and the brothers Bill and Frederick "Bun" Cook, previously known as the A Line for the Subway line that went to Madison Square Garden (the 50th Street stop used for the old Garden is now used by the C and the E, and is bypassed by the A), became known as the Bread Line. 
Left to right: Bill Cook, Frank Boucher, Bun Cook

Desperate for any paying customers, sports promoters would try anything, from the college basketball doubleheaders that began at the old Garden in 1934 to night games for outdoor events, which began in baseball's minor leagues and Negro Leagues in 1930, and in the majors in 1935.

The Depression also led, in 1933, to the repeal of Prohibition, which led to the booze industry being able to create jobs, as well as people once again legally being able to enjoy its products; and the repeal of Pennsylvania's "blue laws" prohibiting certain activities on Sunday, including sports.

That allowed for crowds that couldn't be gotten on any other day of the week, except Saturday, since there were no lighted stadiums in the big cities, which would also change soon. That may have kept the Athletics and the Philadelphia Phillies in business, and made the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Pirates (changing their name to the Steelers in 1940), both founded in 1933, economically viable.

The Great Depression left scars on people that never went away. My grandmother grew up in Queens in that era, and knew how important it was to save money. She grew up in the Depression, so, due to her pinching pennies as an adult, my mother also "grew up in the Depression." And because of that, I "grew up in the Depression." Am I saying that I'm cheap? Yes, I am cheap, but not by choice.

In 1992, during another bad recession, I stayed with my grandmother over Thanksgiving Weekend. On the Saturday, I helped her with grocery shopping. We walked out of the car, and, crossing the parking lot, I saw a penny on the ground. I knew she was superstitious, and that a penny, heads-up, was good luck, but tails-up was not. This penny was tails-up, so I left it alone.

She saw it, stopped, pointed, and said, "Aren't you going to pick that up?"

I said, "It's tails-up, it's not good luck." I figured she would accept this answer.

I was wrong. After nearly 40 years of living in New Jersey, her N'Yawk accent kicked back in, and she said, "Whaaaat? It's money!"

I picked it up.


She died in 2006. Now, every time I see a coin on the ground, I presume that she left it there for me, pick it up, and say, "Thanks, Grandma."

But, as Mom pointed out, Grandma and her contemporaries never had a "Depression survivors group," the way war veterans have social clubs, and survivors of other forms of trauma have support groups. And t
here is no memorial specifically for them on the National Mall in Washington, although the FDR Memorial includes a tribute to them. They had their songs, and their movies, rather than tangible tributes.

We dare not forget them now. We have had hard recessions in 1973-76, 1980-83, 1990-93, 2001-03, 2007-10 and 2020-21. But not another Depression, because of the safeguards we put into place in the 1930s. If we fail to support these safeguards, then everything those people suffered through, and everything those who worked to help them did to do so, will have been in vain.

*

October 29, 1929 was, as stated, a Tuesday. Baseball season was over. The NBA hadn't yet been founded. And the NHL season didn't start until November 14. So there were no scores on this historic day.

But there was one score on this historic day, and it was in the NFL: The Boston Bulldogs beat the Orange Tornadoes, 6-0. Instead of at either team's home field, this game was played at Minersville Park in Minersville, Pennsylvania, home of the Pottsville Maroons, the perhaps unfairly-denied Champions of 1925.

The Depression doomed the Bulldogs, and they did not play the 1930 season. The Tornadoes, originally the Orange Athletic Club of Orange, Essex County, New Jersey, played home games at Knights of Columbus Stadium in East Orange. In 1930, they moved to nearby Newark City Schools Stadium, becoming the Newark Tornadoes. But they had to drop out of the NFL. They continued as a minor-league team until 1965, then, like aging New Yorkers and New Jerseyans tend to do, moved to Florida, and played as the Orlando Panthers from 1966 to 1970, before finally going out of business.

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

October 19, 1987: Black Monday

Note that the "Bernie" in this sub-headline is Bernhard Goetz,
the 1984 "Subway Vigilante," not Senator Bernie Sanders,
future New York Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik,
or fraud financier Bernie Madoff.

October 19, 1987: Black Monday. After the Dow Jones Industrial Average had the biggest drop, points-wise, in its history the preceding Friday, 108 points, and investors had all weekend long to worry, the Dow now has its biggest drop ever in terms of points, 508 (a record long since broken), 2,246.74 to 1,734; and its biggest drop ever in terms of percentage of total value, 22.6 percent (a record that still stands).

People began to wonder if this stock market crash would do what the one in 1929 did, and start a new depression. A cartoonist, remembering President Ronald Reagan's previous career as an actor, drew him "in his last and greatest role: The Herbert Hoover Story."

Ironically, the great conservative was saved by the heavy hand of the federal government: The Federal Reserve Board, chaired by Paul Volcker, appointed by Reagan's much-maligned predecessor, Jimmy Carter, stepped in, supplying banks with liquidity, and convincing them to lend to securities firms. As a result, the next day, the Dow had its largest one-day point gain ever, 102 points. Two days after that, the record was broken again, with the Dow rising 186 points. When 1987 ended, the Dow was still up 0.6 percent for the year. 

*

Being a Monday, there was not a full slate of NFL games on this day, but there was a Monday Night Football game. The Washington Redskins beat the Dallas Cowboys, 13-7 at Texas Stadium in the Dallas suburb of Irving.

Baseball was on a travel day between Games 2 and 3 of the World Series, which the Minnesota Twins would win in 7 games over the St. Louis Cardinals. And the NBA season wouldn't start for another few days.

There were 2 NHL games played that day, 1 involving a local team. The New York Rangers lost to the Washington Capitals, 4-2 at Madison Square Garden. And the Montreal Canadiens beat the Minnesota North Stars, 5-1 at the Montreal Forum. 

Thursday, September 15, 2022

September 15, 2008: The Crash Begins

"Oh no, now I'm going to have to get a real job --
and there won't be any real jobs!"

September 15, 2008: The stock market crashes following a triple whammy in the financing industry: Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch is acquired by Bank of America, and American International Group (AIG) asks for short-term financing from the Federal Reserve.

AIG was a major finance and insurance company. Merrill Lynch was then the 3rd-largest investment bank in America, behind Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Lehman Brothers was 4th, and owned the brokerage firms E.F. Hutton, Smith Barney and Shearson Hammill.

Some of you may remember the commercials from the 1970s and '80s: "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen." And the commercials with John Houseman: "Smith Barney. They make money the old-fashioned way: They earn it."

Lehman Brothers also owned American Express, the credit card and travelers' cheque company, the only one of these Lehman-owned companies to end up surviving the recession that was already underway by mid-2007. AIG also survived, and Bank of America managed to keep the Merrill name and division alive.

The preceding Friday, September 12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,421.99. When it closed on Monday, September 15, it was 10,917.51, down over 504 points. And it kept getting worse: By Friday, October 10, it was 8,451.19. It bottomed out on Monday, March 9, 2009, at 6,457.05. The market had lost 56 percent of its worth. Not since April 14, 1997 had it been so low: The Autumn of 2008 wiped out 11 years' worth of growth.

As it usually does -- since 1952, the only exceptions have been 1968, 2000 and 2016, and all of those may have been stolen -- the economy tells the story of the Presidential election. At this point, Senators John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, and Barack Obama of Illinois, the Democratic nominee, were neck-and-neck in the polls. After this, McCain never had a chance: Obama won 53 percent of the popular vote, and won 28 States, including 9 that had voted Republican in 2004.

Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of Britain from 1979 to 1990, once said, "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money." The Crash of 2008 proved that Thatcher lied: That's what happens with under-regulated capitalism, not socialism. Or even "socialism." Capitalism is the problem when it is under-regulated; when it is properly regulated, it can be a solution.

The Crash of 2008 also proved that, when liberalism wins, everybody wins, including conservatives; but when conservatives win, everybody loses, including eventually, conservatives. It was only because the conservatives got scared that the Bush Administration acted. It was because the economy still needed saving on January 20, 2009 that the Obama Administration acted.

The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, helped keep the downturn from becoming a full-fledged depression. For this, Time magazine named Bernanke its Person of the Year for 2009, as it had named Obama for 2008, and would again in 2012.

*

Major League Baseball games played on this "Black Monday":

* The New York Yankees beat the Chicago White Sox, 4-2 at the soon-to-close old Yankee Stadium. Xavier Nady hit a home run, Bobby Abreu went 3-for-4, and Phil Coke was the winning pitcher, in relief of Alfredo Aceves.

* The New York Mets lost to the Washington Nationals, 7-2 at Nationals Park in Washington.

* The Boston Red Sox beat the Tampa Bay Rays, 13-5 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Tropicana is owned by Pepsi, and survived the recession.

* The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, 8-2 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. PNC Bank survived the recession.

* The Cleveland Indians beat the Minnesota Twins, 3-1 at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Progressive Insurance survived the recession.

* The Kansas City Royals beat the Seattle Mariners, 3-0 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.

* The Chicago Cubs beat the Houston Astros, 6-1 at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Minute Maid is owned by Coca-Cola, which survived the recession. The ballpark opened in 2000 as Enron Field, but Enron not only didn't survive the previous recession, it helped cause that recession. (UPDATE: In 2025, it was renamed Daikin Park.)

* The Texas Rangers beat the Detroit Tigers, 11-8 at Rangers Ballpark in the Dallas suburb of Arlington, Texas. That stadium has gone through a few names, but did not then have a corporate name. It is now named Choctaw Stadium.

* The San Diego Padres beat the Colorado Rockies, 11-5 at Coors Field in Denver. Coors survived the recession.

* The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the San Francisco Giants, 3-1 at Chase Field in Phoenix. JP Morgan Chase was hit hard by the crash, but survived the recession. A grandson of the original John Pierpont Morgan founded what became the aforementioned Morgan Stanley.

Since this was a Monday in September, there was also a Monday Night Football game that night. The Dallas Cowboys beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 41-37 at Texas Stadium in the Dallas suburb of Irving, Texas.

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

May 26, 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average Goes Into Effect

The New York Stock Exchange.
I don't know why there's a Brazilian flag out front.

May 26, 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average goes into effect. Its value: 33.43.

"The Dow" was created by Charles Dow (1851-1902), the editor of The Wall Street Journal and, with his business associate, statistician Edward Jones (1856-1920), the co-founder of Dow Jones & Company.

Having the word "Industrial" in the name initially emphasized the fact that most of the companies involved were in the sector of heavy industry. But that has not always been the case: Some companies have been removed from it, others have been added, and some that were formerly connected with heavy industry have diversified and moved away from it.

At the start, there were 12 companies. The only ones of these that are likely to be familiar to a 2022 audience are General Electric and the United States Rubber Company, now known as Uniroyal.

But even GE, as big as it still is, didn't stay part of the Dow forever, being dropped in 2018. As of August 30, 2020, these are the 30 companies on the Dow: 3M (Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing), American Express, Amgen, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar (makers of construction equipment), Chevron, Cisco Systems, Coca-Cola, Dow Inc. (the chemical company, with no other connection to Dow Jones & Company besides name), Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, Honeywell, Intel, IBM (International Business Machines), Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald's, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Procter & Gamble, Salesforce, The Travelers, UnitedHealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens Boots Alliance (Boots is a British pharmacy chain, similar to America's Walgreens), and The Walt Disney Company.

On September 3, 1929, the Dow hit 381.17, then a record high. Then it started to drop. From October 24 to 29 of that year, it crashed to 230.07. On July 8, 1932, at the depth of the Great Depression, it was 41.22, the lowest it has been since its earliest days. On November 23, 1954, 25 years after the Crash, it finally got above its 1929 high in constant dollars. And it took until July 6, 1959, almost 30 years after, to surpass it in inflation-adjusted dollars.

On November 14, 1972, the Dow closed above 1,000 for the 1st time. After a brief period up there, it would not reach 1,000 again until 1980, as the 1973-81 period was a time of high inflation. On October 19, 1987, the Dow had its biggest value drop ever, over 22 percent, and 508 total points. That total has been topped (or bottomed) many times, but not the value.

The Dow first topped 10,000 on March 29, 1999; and reached 14,198.10 on October 11, 2007. Then it started going back down, for a period that included the Crash of 2008, bottoming out at 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, its lowest straight-dollar close in 22 years. It topped the 2007 high on March 5, 2013; topped 20,000 on October 2, 2017; topped 25,000 on January 4, 2018; topped 30,000 on November 24, 2020.

On October 1, 1999, Washington Post columnist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett published a book titled Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market. They predicted that the Dow would reach 36,000 by 2004. The "bursting of the dot-com bubble" and the 9/11 attacks, both in 2001, prevented this, and the Crash of 2008 prevented it from happening soon after that. The Dow finally closed over 36,000 on November 2, 2021.

Glassman and Hassett shouldn't feel too bad: They're not alone. In 1976, Paul Erdman, who had previously served time in prison for bank fraud, published The Crash of '79, which predicted a depression following an Islamic revolution in Iran jacking up oil prices. He almost got it right, as there was such a revolution there in 1979. But while there was a "bear market" from 1979 to 1982, there wasn't a crash; while there was a recession, there wasn't a depression.

He followed this in 1986 with The Panic of '89. There was a big downturn in October that year, but it wasn't as bad as the one in 1987, and the recession that began in 1990 and lasted until 1993 had little to do with either real-life drops, '87 or '89.

And in 1991, ABC aired the drama My Life and Times, in which an old man looks back on his life from the year 2035. The 5th episode was about the Crash of '87. The 6th was titled "The Collapse of '98," and showed the Miller family dealing with the depression that resulted. As it turned out, not only was this the last episode of the series, but 1998 was a "bull market" year, and neither the recession that followed the Crash of 2008 nor the one that followed the COVID lockdown of 2020 was as bad as what was shown in "The Collapse of '98," which seemed to be as bad as the Great Depression of the 1930s.

*

May 26, 1896 was a Tuesday. Professional basketball and hockey did not exist. Professional football barely did. And there was only 1 major league in baseball, the National League. These games were played that day:

* The New York Giants beat the Cleveland Spiders, 5-4 at the 1890-1911 version of the Polo Grounds.

* The Brooklyn Bridegrooms -- often called the Dodgers, but still officially using the name they'd used since 1887, when several of their players got married in the off-season -- beat the Louisville Colonels, 4-3 at Eastern Park in Brooklyn.

* The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Chicago Colts, 8-1 at National League Park in Philadelphia. The ballpark would later be renamed Baker Bowl, and the Colts would be renamed the Cubs.

* The Baltimore Orioles beat the St. Louis Browns, 13-3 at Oriole Park in Baltimore. The Browns would become the Cardinals in 1900. In 1902, a new Browns team would begin in the American League, but moved for the 1954 season, becoming the new version of the Baltimore Orioles.

* The Cincinnati Reds beat the Washington Senators, 18-5 at Boundary Field in Washington.

* The Boston Beaneaters were supposed to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at the South End Grounds in Boston, but the game was rained out. It was made up as part of a doubleheader on August 22. The Pirates won both games, 8-4 and 6-3. The Beaneaters would go through additional odd names before becoming the Braves in 1912.

The Spiders, the Colonels, the Orioles and the Senators would be contracted out of existence after the 1899 season. This, and the subsequent availability of players, made it possible for the American League to declare itself a major league in 1901.

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

January 19, 2025: The Economy When Joe Biden Left the Presidency

NOTE: While these entries are dated 2022, I decided to backdate the posting dates of events from 2023 onward to the same date in 2022.

January 19, 2025: These were the economic conditions on the last full day in office for President Joe Biden:

* The previous Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had closed at 43,487.83. That was an all-time high. (It didn't change on Monday, January 19: Due to the federal Martin Luther King Day holiday, the stock market is closed.) The day he was inaugurated to take over from Donald Trump, it was 30,930.52.

On March 23, 2020, early in the COVID lockdown, it bottomed out at 18,591.93. It could be argued that such a thing might have happened even if the President at the time had done everything right in regard to the pandemic.

* The unemployment rate is 4.1 percent. Biden became the 1st President ever to leave office having created jobs in every full month in office. Trump left it as the 2nd President ever to leave office having a net loss of jobs. The 1st was Herbert Hoover (1929-33). As bad as both George Bushes were (the father, 1989-93; the son, 2001-09), they managed to squeak through with slight gains at the end.

* Inflation, the very thing Trump campaigned on and won in 2024 (along with the allegedly connected fears of immigration and crime), is at 2.9 percent. When Trump left office, it was 1.7 percent -- but that was after COVID had artificially held prices down, because purchasing had gone down. Because of the return to buying in late 2020, and especially in mid-2021 after the last of the COVID restrictions were lifted, It hit 9.0 percent in June 2022, its highest rate in 41 years.

On August 16, 2022, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, having gotten it through a very closely divided Congress, and it worked. The rise in inflation was only slightly his fault, largely the fault of COVID and Trump's stupid response to it; the drop inflation was all him. But he and Vice President Kamala Harris did a lousy job of showing people that in 2024.

* As for the 2 items most often cited by 2024 voters as being too expensive: The average price of a gallon of gas in the United States is around $3.12; while the average price of a dozen eggs is, oddly, about the same.

Trump's idea to raise tariffs isn't going to lower prices. That usually does the exact opposite: It raises prices. And, in his interview with Time magazine after being named its Person of the Year, the dumb schmuck admitted that he wasn't so great and powerful when it came to prices: "I'd like to bring them down. It's hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it's very hard." He spoke like a child. That's because he has the understanding of a child, when it comes to the economy and pretty much anything else.

And I have barely even touched on any other issue: Crime, immigration, the environment, foreign policy, the corruption of Trump and his flunkies, etc.

These are the bases for which Trump's handling of the economy should be measured. Will the media hold him to account if he handles it badly? Or if he handles any other issue badly? They have shown no indication that they will.

But to it's all on him now. He has effective control of all 3 branches of government, and the media. And, for those of you who voted for him, it's also all on you. Whatever happens over the next four years, it's because you chose this guy.

If it works out in your favor, you are well within your rights to gloat.

If it doesn't -- if Trump crashes the economy a second time, if crime gets worse, if the immigration problem is not fixed, if there is a foreign-policy disaster, if there is another pandemic -- I am well within my rights to tell you that I told you so.

Because, in spite of whatever dictatorial ambitions he has, I do have that right.

As for Joe Biden, who, today, says goodbye after spending 50 of the last 54 years in elective office...

Thank you, Mr. President. You, too, Dr. Jill Biden. You, too, Vice President Kamala Harris. You, too, everyone who worked for them. (Except you, Merrick Garland and Robert Mueller, who turned out to be as useful as a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest.)

Godspeed, folks.

*

January 19, 2025 was a Sunday. In the NFL Playoffs, the NFC saw the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Los Angeles Rams, 28-22 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia; while the AFC saw the Buffalo Bills beat the Baltimore Ravens, 27-25 at Highmark Stadium in the Buffalo suburb of Orchard Park, New York. Both games were played in snowfall and on slick fields, and both went back and forth before a winner could be established.

The day before, in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Houston Texans, 23-14 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City; and the Washington Commanders beat the Detroit Lions, 45-31 at Ford Field in Detroit. For the Lions, it was a stunning defeat, following a season that saw them go a franchise-best 15-2, win the NFC North Division, and achieve the Number 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs.

For the team formerly known as the Washington Redskins, it was their 1st advancement to the NFC Championship Game in 33 years. For over 10 years, they had been a great team, reaching 4 Super Bowls and winning 3. For the next 30 years, they had battled mediocrity.

For about 25 years, under the ownership of Dan Snyder, they had become just about irrelevant, and even embarrassing, on the field and in the boardroom, before Snyder sold the team to a group led by Josh Harris, which had also bought the NBA's Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL's New Jersey Devils, in each case with little success, and little reason to believe the renamed Commanders would get any better -- but anything would have been better than Snyder's regime.

Baseball was out of season. There were 7 games in the NBA:

* The Brooklyn Nets lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 127-101 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

* The Denver Nuggets beat the Orlando Magic, 113-100 at the Kia Center in Orlando.

* The Miami Heat beat the San Antonio Spurs, 113-100 at the Kaseya Center in Miami.

* The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-109 at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

* The Los Angeles Clippers beat their arch-rivals, the Los Angeles Lakers, 116-102. This was the 1st time the teams had played each other at the Clippers' new home, the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California -- a mile south of the Lakers' former home, The Forum.

* The Sacramento Kings beat the Washington Wizards, 123-100 at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

* And the Portland Trail Blazers beat the Chicago Bulls, 113-102 at the Moda Center in Portland.

And there were 3 games in the NHL:

* In an "Original Six" matchup, the New York Rangers lost to the Montreal Canadiens, 5-4 at Madison Square Garden. Patrick Laine scored the winning goal with 1:40 left in overtime.

* The New Jersey Devils lost to the Ottawa Senators, 2-1 at the Prudential Center in Newark.

* And the Dallas Stars beat the Detroit Red Wings, 4-1 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

December 31, 1999 & January 1, 2000: The Millennium

December 31, 1999:  The Millennium arrives. The people of planet Earth survived. At a terrible cost. But we hadn't destroyed ourselves. ...