Wednesday, June 1, 2022

June 1, 1947: The Doomsday Clock

June 1, 1947: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists publishes its June 1947 issue. On the cover is the debut of "The Doomsday Clock." It represents the perception of the Chicago Atomic Scientists, who ran the magazine, of how close the world is to a human-made global catastrophe.

As Eugene Rabinowitch, a co-founder of the Bulletin, explained later, "The Bulletin's Clock is not a gauge to register the ups and downs of the international power struggle. It is intended to reflect basic changes in the level of continuous danger in which mankind lives in the nuclear age."

The initial setting was at 7 minutes to midnight -- midnight being the catastrophe that the scientists feared. In 1949, after the Soviets had their 1st successful tested of an atomic bomb, the Scientists moved the Clock forward to 3 minutes. In 1953, after both the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, the Scientists moved the clock to 2 minutes.

In 1960, after some thawing in the Cold War, the Scientists moved the Clock back to 7 minutes. The Berlin Crisis of Summer 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 came and went too quickly for them to issue a new Bulletin. But they time they did, in late 1963, the Partial Test Ban Treaty had been signed, and the Scientists were willing to push the Clock back to 12 minutes.

By 1968, China had developed the bomb, the Vietnam War had become a quagmire, and the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War of 1967 had taken place. The Clock was moved forward to 7 minutes. Just a year later, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty had been signed, and the Clock was moved back to 10 minutes. In 1972, the SALT I and Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaties were signed, and the Clock was moved back to 12 minutes.

The Cold War got chillier. In 1974, India tested a nuclear device: 9 minutes. In 1980, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. The U.S. boycotted the Olympics in Moscow, and the Senate refused to ratify the SALT II treaty: 7 minutes. In 1981, Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as President, and increased the U.S. nuclear missile presence in Europe: 4 minutes. In 1983, there was the Soviet shootdown of Korean Air Lines Flight 007, and some close calls on World War III. In 1984, the Soviets boycotted the Olympics in Los Angeles. And Reagan made a joke about starting World War III. 3 minutes.

But things changed again. In 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev became President of the Soviet Union, and he and Reagan worked to reduce weapons and tensions. In 1988, the Clock was moved back to 6 minutes. In 1989, the Berlin Wall fell, and in 1990, the Clock was moved back to 10 minutes. In 1991, the START I treaty was ratified, and the Soviet Union collapsed. The Clock was moved back to its all-time furthest point: 17 minutes.

Despite the end of the Cold War, things changed again. Concerns about "loose nukes" and terrorism pushed the Clock forward to 14 minutes in 1995. India and Pakistan both testing bombs in 1998 pushed it forward to 9 minutes. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the fear of a "briefcase bomb" pushed it forward to 7 minutes. North Korea's successful test in 2006, and Iran's nuclear ambitions, pushed it forward to 5 minutes in 2007.

The Clock was pushed back to 6 minutes in 2010, due to efforts to improve climate change, something the Scientists had been worried about in addition to nuclear weapons. But improvements stalled, and the Clock was moved forward to 5 minutes in 2012, 3 minutes in 2015, and 2 1/2 minutes in 2017.

In 2018, with Donald Trump having become President, and his favoring of Russia and North Korea, the Scientists got scared, and they moved the Clock up to 2 minutes. In 2020, with Trump still in office, and the COVID epidemic showing that disease could be just as deadly as bombs, they moved it up 20 seconds, to 100 seconds to midnight. This is the closest it's ever been.

UPDATE: In 2023, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Clock was moved up 10 seconds, to 90 seconds to midnight, a new record. In 2024, a decision was made to keep it there. On January 27, 2026, it was reset at 85 seconds to midnight -- 1 minute and 25 seconds. 11:58:35 PM.

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June 1, 1947 was a Sunday. Rolling Stones guitarist Ron Wood and actor Jonathan Pryce were born on this day. And these baseball games were played:

* The New York Yankees beat the Cleveland Indians, 11-9 at Cleveland Municipal Stadium. Joe DiMaggio hit 2 home runs. George McQuinn and Charlie Keller also homered for the Yankees.

* A doubleheader was split at the Polo Grounds. The Cincinnati Reds won the opener, 5-3. The New York Giants won the nightcap, 13-9.

* The Brooklyn Dodgers beat the St. Louis Cardinals, 6-1 at Ebbets Field. Jackie Robinson went 2-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base. Pee Wee Reese hit a home run. Harry Taylor outpitched Harry Brecheen.

* The Boston Braves swept the Pittsburgh Pirates, 2-0 and 8-7 at Braves Field in Boston. Johnny Saint pitched a 3-hit shutout in the 1st game. Connie Ryan won the 2nd game with a triple in the bottom of the 10th inning. Over the 2 games, for the Pirates, Hank Greenberg went 2-for-3 with 2 walks, and Ralph Kiner went 2-for-8 with 2 home runs, 2 RBIs, and a walk.

* The Chicago Cubs beat the Philadelphia Phillies, 4-3 at Shibe Park in Philadelphia.

* The St. Louis Browns beat the Philadelphia Athletics, 7-2 at Sportsman's Park in St. Louis.

* The Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox were rained out at Comiskey Park in Chicago. The game was made up as part of a doubleheader on July 17. The Red Sox swept, 4-1 and 6-3. They scored 3 runs in the top of the 11th inning to win the 2nd game. Over the 2 games, Ted Williams went 2-for-10 with an RBI.

* And the Detroit Tigers and the Washington Senators were rained out at Briggs Stadium (later Tiger Stadium) in Detroit. The game was made up as part of a doubleheader on August 21. The Senators swept, 3-2 and 5-3.

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